SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242002
NYZ000-PAZ000-242100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION...NRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 242002Z - 242100Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN NY THROUGH
THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND ACROSS NRN PA...AS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE INCREASES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ERIE/SRN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED
WITH A MCV /EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY/ IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN NY IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND MLCAPE VALUES UNDER 1000 J/KG
PER SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. INSTABILITY INCREASES MARKEDLY
FARTHER TO THE S /ACROSS NRN PA/ AND E. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
GENERALLY TRACK ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS WRN NY INTO
FAR NRN PA. INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL KINEMATIC FIELDS AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE W SHOULD YIELD A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
..ROGERS.. 07/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41627472 41517827 41677964 41718020 42058044 42387956
42567924 42927872 42997817 43387500 42857457 41627472
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