SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242134
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-242300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OH/WESTERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 242134Z - 242300Z
AN INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN OH/WESTERN PA...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. MONITORING FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.
INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD IS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITHIN A PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND/PERHAPS PRIOR
OUTFLOW...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR
ALREADY NOTED NEAR CLEVELAND. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FORCED ON THE
LARGE SCALE /REGION IS IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL SYSTEMS/...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A HOT/MOIST WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM
IL/INDIANA LATER TONIGHT. WITH MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 2000-2500
J/KG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES BENEATH 40-50 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION OF MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY SOMETIME
TONIGHT...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM COULD
PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE SOON.
..GUYER.. 07/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 41448355 41588202 42157981 40737959 40218184 40348350
40858376 41448355
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