SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242222
NYZ000-PAZ000-242315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530...
VALID 242222Z - 242315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 530 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NY AND
NORTHWEST-NORTH-CENTRAL PA...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITHIN WW 530.
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS...A FEW
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT OR TWO ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL
PA/EXTREME SOUTHERN NY...WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MAXIMIZED SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS /NEARLY 2 MB PER 2-HR/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WHAT
APPEARS TO BE AROUND 100-150 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH PER REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWP DATA. THE TORNADO RISK MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
BRIEF/MARGINAL IN NATURE OWING TO THE MODEST/BUT ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...AND TENDENCY FOR A LINEAR-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE.
HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASING WSW LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...IF A
SEMI-DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR PERSISTS IN THE SHORT TERM...A TORNADO
WATCH UPGRADE COULD BE NEEDED SOON. OTHERWISE...WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE EVENING...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
BECOME THE PRIMARY/MORE WIDESPREAD HAZARD THIS EVENING WITH AN
INCREASING/UPSCALE GROWING QUASI-LINEAR MCS STEADILY SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA.
..GUYER.. 07/24/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 42397902 42877785 43167601 41907484 41097596 40847718
41247874 42397902
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