SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292103
NDZ000-MTZ000-292200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ERN MT INTO WRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292103Z - 292200Z
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
AND ERN MT INTO WRN ND. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY WITH SEWD EXTENT
FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER NRN VALLEY/PHILLIPS COUNTIES MT.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A COUPLE OF TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
NRN PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES IN NERN MT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY
TOPPING THE RIDGE IN SWRN SASKATCHEWAN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
NERN MT INTO WRN ND ALSO RESIDE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 30-40 KT
WLY MIDLEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SK IMPULSE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S HAVE WEAKENED THE SBCINH FOR SURFACE BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL CU/TCU DEVELOPING TO THE NE OF
GGW. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-45 KT... MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
TO AROUND 1500 J PER KG/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..PETERS.. 07/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 47040559 48300694 49010773 49090501 48960332 47260297
46660334 46630468 47040559
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