SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
AZZ000-292300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AND SWRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292203Z - 292300Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER S-CENTRAL AND
SWRN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...SVR COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...AND A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
CLUSTER OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS 55 SSE OF PHX ARE PROPAGATING WWD
INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F AND
SHALLOW LAYER OF DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AT THE SURFACE...AND PWAT
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES /PER GPS GUIDANCE/. THIS HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500
J/KG...IN ADDITION TO VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 9 C PER
KM IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER/. AS A RESULT...HOT/MOIST AND DEEPLY MIXED
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGER MULTICELL UPDRAFT CORES AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW DRIVES STORMS
TOWARD THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
..GARNER.. 07/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31761231 32211382 33031405 33871355 34051235 33531163
32621164 31761231
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