MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1506

ACUS11 KWNS 302058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302058
KSZ000-COZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF WRN AND NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302058Z - 302200Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NRN AND
WRN KS...GENERALLY NEAR I-70 FROM VICINITY OF SLN WWD TO 50 ESE GLD
AND THEN WSWWD TO WALLACE/GREELEY COUNTIES...WITH A SIMILAR THREAT
FARTHER SWWD INTO SERN CO.

DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING
/TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 F IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/ WITHIN A MOIST
AIR MASS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE
1500-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE KS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. RELATIVELY LOWER MLCAPE...THOUGH STILL MODERATE AROUND 1000
J/KG OVER WEST CENTRAL KS INTO ADJACENT SERN CO MAY TEND TO LIMIT
STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONGER INSTABILITY
NEAR/JUST E AND S OF PUB MAY BOOST TSTM POTENTIAL.

FORCING ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK AND SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
STRONGER STORMS...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOW SWD MOVING
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY PARALLEL AND JUST N OF I-70 FROM SLN TO 50 ESE
GLD AND THEN WSWWD INTO W CENTRAL KS TO SERN CO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO MAY BOOST
TSTM POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...30-40
DEGREE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES AND DCAPE 1400-1700
J/KG SUGGEST STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE ROBUST
TSTMS.

..PETERS.. 07/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39299841 39289740 38739732 38719851 38559976 38460078
38270162 37970328 37890404 37800456 38280458 38790399
38880342 38960199 39100135 39270051 39379948 39299841

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