WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 446

WWUS20 KWNS 101857
SEL6
SPC WW 101857
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VALENTINE NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH WITHIN THE
NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. AMBIENT AIR MASS E OF LEE TROUGH IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHEN COUPLED
WITH STEADILY STRENGTHENING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.

...MEAD

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