SWODY1
SPC AC 080104
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...
...UPPER MIDWEST...
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF SEMI-DISCRETE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN AND NRN WI THIS EVENING. THE MN
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED AS FORECAST NEAR A WEAK SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT
WHERE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING HAVE
OVERCOME INHIBITION ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. STORMS ARE WITHIN VERY
SUPPORTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REGIME TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HIGH
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST WAS OCCURRING ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT BUT WAS BEING FED BY PLUME OF
STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL.
MN STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT AS FORCING AND SHEAR REMAIN STRONG AND WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPS EAST AIDED BY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CURRENTLY SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS
WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO LARGER COMPLEX AND BEGIN TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONT WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS SERN MN AND WRN WI LATE. TO
SOME EXTENT THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...STRONGER LARGER SCALE FORCING IS SUBTLE AND SUGGESTS THAT
IT MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS MORE BEFORE THIS UPSCALE GROWTH BEGINS TO
APPEAR. IN THE MEANTIME...CELLULAR NATURE OF ONGOING WARM SECTOR
STORMS AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
..CARBIN.. 08/08/2010
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