SWODY1
SPC AC 230055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN GULF COAST STATES...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM SRN AR SEWD INTO SRN MS
ACROSS A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM JACKSON MS SHOWS A MUCAPE VALUE AROUND 4000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED
WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A SFC DEWPOINT IN THE MID 70S F
COULD SUPPORT A FEW WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS
AND LINE-SEGMENTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS NV WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT IN SE ID...NRN
UT...WY AND CNTRL MT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. IN SPITE OF A
WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ARE
ESTIMATING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 KT IN NRN UT TO AS MUCH AS 70 KT IN ECNTRL MT. THIS ALONG
WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE FASTER MOVING CELLS.
...SE AZ/FAR SE NM...
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL AND
SE AZ WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 2000 TO 3000 J/K OF MLCAPE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS NWWD TO AREAS NORTH OF TUSCON WITHIN A
FEW HOURS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM TUSCON CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC-3 KM
LAPSE RATE OF 9.7 C/KM WITH A SFC DEWPOINTS OF 60 F WHICH ALONG WITH
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS OR PULSE STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 08/23/2010
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