Sunday, August 29, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300102
SWODY1
SPC AC 300100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTING THE BASAL/BRUNT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TROUGH NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST CA/SOUTHERN NV
EARLY THIS EVENING...ONGOING SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS AZ MAY POSE A
SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL RISK PRIMARILY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE OBSERVED RAOB TRENDS REFLECT MARKEDLY STRONGER MID/HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FROM EARLIER TODAY...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND OTHERWISE
A NOCTURNALLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH...PRIOR TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...A WELL
MIXED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /REFERENCE 00Z GRAND JUNCTION
OBSERVED RAOB/ WILL SUPPORT SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO
INTO WY.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE/SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND.

..GUYER.. 08/30/2010

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