Thursday, August 26, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261608
SWODY1
SPC AC 261607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2010

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...INTERIOR WRN STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING..
MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY AROUND UPPER HIGH WHICH IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING EWD FROM UT. WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRM MID LVL
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS HAS WORKED NWD THRU WRN NV INTO SERN OR/SWRN ID
THIS MORNING. DEEP MIXING OF A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGH
BASED CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON FROM MTNS CENTRAL ID/MT BORDER
REGION SWWD TO SRN SIERRAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN DCAPES
IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG FROM MOJAVE DESERTS NWD TO SRN ID/SWRN MT.
STORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN SRN CA NWD
THRU SRN SIERRAS AND WRN NV GIVEN GREATER AVAILABLE MOISTURE. GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY TO SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE VICINITY ANY
STRONG UPDRAFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHERE PWAT/S
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN TO THE S.

...SE ATLANTIC COAST AREA...
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED E/W ACROSS SRN NC TO NRN AL. AIR MASS REMAINS
VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE TO S OF FRONT E OF APPALACHIANS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW. ONLY
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE AND ALONG INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..HALES/GARNER.. 08/26/2010

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