SWODY1
SPC AC 261228
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SE ATLANTIC COAST AREA TODAY...
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RICHER LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
REDUCED GREATLY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS DURING THE PAST WEEK...SUCH
THAT THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AND 2 INCH PLUS PW VALUES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL TO THE S OF SLOW-MOVING
FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
MOISTURE PLUME OVER FL AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
FARTHER N INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR /MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/ ALONG A REINFORCING FRONTAL
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE OH
VALLEY/APPALACHIANS MIDLEVEL TROUGH. ALSO...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA/SRN SC...WHERE ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
...INTERIOR WRN STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING NWD FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OF AZ/CA. SOME
WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN
AND FOUR CORNERS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND OVER
THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...AND AS A MUCH WEAKER MID-UPPER WAVE
DRIFTS NEWD OVER SE CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER CO
VALLEY...FOCUSED PRIMARILY BY LOCALLY HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
LARGE DCAPE TO SUPPORT HYBRID DOWNBURSTS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL FARTHER N ACROSS THE ID/WRN MT AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HERE...ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN BUT STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS GIVEN THE DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL
FLOW.
..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 08/26/2010
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