SWODY2
SPC AC 281800
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT SAT AUG 28 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED PROBABILITY GRAPHIC
...SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON SUNDAY WITH LARGE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST AND AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE
WEST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...CURRENT AND PAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING AN IMPULSE OVER THE NRN GULF NWD AROUND
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN U.S. RIDGE...THOUGH PAST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN MOVING THIS FEATURE NWD.
...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRYING WILL BE SPREADING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY...UPPER IMPULSE OVER NRN CA IS
FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN
NV/CA BY LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED EAST OF THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE SRN NV/CA SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
MOISTENING OF MID/HIGH LEVELS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY/SERN STATES...
AS UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING NWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE LOW/MID LEVEL LOW CENTER DURING
THE MORNING...SRN LA/MS...WITH THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUTWARD
FROM THE CENTER DURING THE DAY AS HEATING AND GREATER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SERN
STATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONT/DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM WRN TN
SEWD INTO SRN GA.
GIVEN PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE VERY WARM MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER... AN AFTERNOON WET MICROBURST HERE OR THERE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...MOIST ADIABATIC LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
SHEAR SUGGESTS THE VERY ISOLATED THREAT ACROSS THE LARGE AREA IS TOO
LOW FOR 5% WIND PROBABILITIES.
..IMY.. 08/28/2010
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