SWODY2
SPC AC 271723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
AMPLIFIED AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WEST...RESULTING IN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP LIFT A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...SLOWLY
NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...ERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AHEAD OF WRN US TROUGH...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
NRN PLAINS SWWD THROUGH NRN WY WWD INTO NRN CA. AT THE SAME
TIME...MID/HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM
AZ/NM NWD INTO WRN WY/SERN ID/SWRN MT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MOIST
AIR MASS AND LARGE SCALE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST. WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION...THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO/SERN ID/WRN WY AND FAR SWRN MT... STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BRING UNCERTAINTY TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPDRAFTS OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
FOR THIS REASON...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MAINTAINED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT PORTIONS OF AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
RISK ON DAY 1 OUTLOOK IF STRONGER INSTABILITY APPEARS MORE CERTAIN.
...GULF COASTAL STATES...
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NWD...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...PW VALUES AOA
2.0 INCHES...WILL SPREAD FURTHER INLAND...ESPECIALLY FROM MS EWD
ACROSS THE ERN GULF COASTAL STATES...AS THE MEAN ATMOSPHERIC SLY
WINDS INCREASE. MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS AND THE RESULTANT POOR
MID/HIGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..IMY.. 08/27/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment