SWOD48
SPC AC 260828
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2010
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND ITS SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR
POTENTIALLY ROBUST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THIS REGION. MODELS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE REGARDING THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NWRN MN MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON
WILL NOT INTRODUCE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
AN OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER PERIODS.
..DARROW.. 08/26/2010
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