SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012325
KSZ000-020030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012325Z - 020030Z
ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVER
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL KS INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED
NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SEWD FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER NERN CO INTO N-CENTRAL KS. VERY HOT /100 F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/ AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RESIDES TO
THE W OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE COOLER AND MORE MOIST /DEWPOINTS NEAR
70 F/ CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED TO ITS E. WITHIN THE TRANSITION
ZONE...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO 2000-3000 J/KG...FAVORING
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS EMANATE OFF OF THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. AS STORMS MOVE E...THEY ARE
ENCOUNTERING LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW VEERING TO WLY THROUGH 3 KM. THOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROMOTE
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESIDING OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
..GARNER.. 08/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39529950 39899916 39989846 39869784 39389749 38739808
38829909 39529950
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