SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012356
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-020200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN SD AND CENTRAL/WRN MN.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 558...
VALID 012356Z - 020200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 558 CONTINUES.
EARLIER SVR TSTMS THAT FORMED OVER NERN SD AND MOVED INTO MN HAVE
WEAKENED OVER RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS N OF QUASISTATIONARY
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z
FROM MCLEOD COUNTY MN WNWWD ACROSS ROBERTS COUNTY SD. THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS FRONTAL ZONE OVER ROBERTS OR MARSHALL COUNTY SD.
REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MARSHALL COUNTY
SD WSWWD INTO POTTER COUNTY...QUASISTATIONARY EXCEPT INVOF ATTACHED
MISOSCALE CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL EDMUNDS COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY
THEN EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH LOW NEAR PIR...AND INTO NWRN NEB.
CONVERGENCE ON EITHER BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IN AND E OF MISOLOW AND
NEAR THEIR INTERSECTION...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT STILL
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MINIMAL MLCINH FROM THIS AREA ESEWD ALONG MN BOUNDARY...WITH MLCAPE
2000-3500 J/KG AND 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. OTHER TSTMS
OVER WW 560 MAY MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THIS WW WITHIN NEXT
2-3 HOURS AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 08/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 44429461 44599794 45219801 45219917 45479918 46489716
46549505 45639346 44429461
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