SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062229
TXZ000-070030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 062229Z - 070030Z
WHILE TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THAT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY PREDICT WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL LEAD TIME.
THUS...A WATCH APPEARS UNLIKELY.
VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG A DAL-MWL-ABI LINE
WHERE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND COLLIDING OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
OCCURRING BENEATH/WITHIN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WITH
STRONGER WLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER ELY FLOW TO THE SOUTH
PERHAPS PROMOTING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MASS
EVACUATION ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE FOR STORM PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION...HOT AND VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SCATTERED AND NEAR RANDOM PATTERN TO DOWNBURST WIND
POTENTIAL BENEATH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. GIVEN WEAK BACKGROUND
ASCENT...MARGINAL FLOW AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ONE OR TWO SLOW-MOVING STORM CLUSTERS COULD ALSO GENERATE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
..CARBIN.. 08/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32549623 31819697 31489905 31499976 31720043 32680127
32960113 33180033 33399904 33469877 33549832 33279678
32549623
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