SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072223
AZZ000-080030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN AZ
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 072223Z - 080030Z
SATELLITE SHOWS AN MCV AROUND 125 NM SW OF KTUS AT 22Z...MOVING NE
25-30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW SONORA STATE IN MEXICO AND WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN
SCNTRL/SERN AZ THROUGH THE EVENING. OBVIOUSLY...MORNING MCV HAS
LEFT AN ENVELOPE OF SUBSIDENCE...AND DELAYED HEATING SEEMS TO BE
STUNTING DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE GROWTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION.
BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT ON THE MODEST SIDE...THOUGH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND PRESENCE OF 1.5 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS. CONCERN IS FOR BANDS OF STORMS ALIGNING WITH THE
MEAN SSW FLOW REGIME THAT WILL RESULT IN TRAINING STORMS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR.
ADDITIONALLY...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS SECONDARY TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
RISK. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES AMIDST SLIGHTLY STRONGER
INSTABILITY.
..RACY.. 08/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31831293 32941301 33061203 33201088 32270933 30870921
30481103 30591194 31291274 31831293
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