Saturday, August 7, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1608

ACUS11 KWNS 080158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080157
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-080330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MN AND WCNTRL/NWRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 584...

VALID 080157Z - 080330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 584 CONTINUES.

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT JUST N OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR
FROM WCNTRL MN SEWD INTO WCNTRL WI. SUPERCELL STORMS THAT INITIATED
BEFORE SUNSET SW OF FERGUS FALLS HAVE UNDERGONE NUMEROUS CELL SPLITS
WITH A LONG-LIVED SURFACE BASED RIGHT-MOVING CELL BEING MAINTAINED
ALONG I-94 NW OF ALEXANDRIA. LEFT-SPLITS HAVE MOVED NE INTO NCNTRL
MN...ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE SAME FRONT TOWARD NWRN WI. THE LATTER
PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NRN/CNTRL WI DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SWLY LLJ BECOMES FOCUSED INTO CNTRL MN. WHILE
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS...DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. NEW WW/S MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM SOON.

MEANWHILE...THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR FROM ALEXANDRIA-WADENA SEWD TOWARD
THE MSP METRO AREA THROUGH 06Z. HERE...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SURFACE-BASED AND TAP 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND NEAR 175 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 08/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 48269841 47089405 45839154 45018945 44198979 44159144
44319285 44309298 46109787 48269841

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