SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152201
COZ000-WYZ000-152230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152201Z - 152230Z
NRN CO IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WW.
AT 2145Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SINGLE TSTM HAD DEVELOPED
IN SWRN LARAMIE COUNTY /20 W CYS/ WITH A SSEWD MOVEMENT. LOW LEVEL
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO THE DENVER CYCLONE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR ANY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED WEAKENING INHIBITION OVER NRN CO WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG. THESE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT WLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS ATOP ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP...WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
..PETERS.. 08/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39650531 40460537 40940532 41010507 40960468 40250452
39640436 39350481 39330519 39650531
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