SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152254
AZZ000-160030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN-SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152254Z - 160030Z
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN AZ. IN ADDITION...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1.5 IN/HR.
WSR-88D VWPS OVER SRN-SERN AZ INDICATED DEEP ELY WINDS AOB 15-20 KT.
GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING /UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S/ COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID
60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND/OR IF ACTIVITY CAN
MERGE/FORM CLUSTERS INTO THE EVENING.
..PETERS.. 08/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31301037 31361115 31871265 33271232 33521216 33431130
33321063 32670987 31380955 31301037
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