MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1704

ACUS11 KWNS 162233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162232
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-162300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB AND NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621...

VALID 162232Z - 162300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621
CONTINUES.

NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PART OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB INTO NWRN
KS...TO THE EAST OF WW 622. MEANWHILE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FARTHER E ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN EXTENT OF WW 621 SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT INTO THE EVENING.

...WW 621...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE NRN PART OF NEB PANHANDLE EWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...
WHILE THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS REINFORCED WITH A MORE SWD
PUSH BY A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO LEAD TSTM OVER
NERN NEB. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO ERN NEB AND RAIN
SHIELD OVER CENTRAL PART OF WW 621 NORTH OF TSTM CLUSTER OVER
CENTRAL NEB ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ERN EXTENT OF THIS WW...WITH LOCAL WFO
COUNTY CANCELLATIONS LIKELY.

...POTENTIAL NEW WW...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ORGANIZED TSTM LINE ALONG SWRN
FLANK OF CENTRAL NEB TSTM CLUSTER WITH A SEWD MOVEMENT AT 30 KT.
THIS LINE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND WITH A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LIKELY PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT UVVS FOR THIS TSTM CLUSTER TO BE MAINTAINED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW SEVERE THIS LINE CAN
BECOME AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM STRONGER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL STRONGER TSTMS MOVING EWD THROUGH NEB PANHANDLE AND NERN
CO /ERN EXTENT OF WW 622/...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IN KEITH COUNTY NEB
/40 NNW IML/ WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...GIVEN
AVAILABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 35 KT.
THUS...A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED TO THE EAST OF WW 622.

..PETERS.. 08/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39710195 40970201 41140253 42980275 42989991 42959924
42249669 41819640 41359643 41149827 40989969 39670036
39590127 39710195

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