SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220051
AZZ000-220145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/S-CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 220051Z - 220145Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL EXIST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS SRN/S-CNTRL AZ. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PIMA/SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF S
CNTRL AZ. SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/...AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PW
VALUES /AROUND 1.8 INCH/ COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE MOST
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR
NWWD CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED...AS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
LIKELY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COLD POOL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE INTO PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES.
..ROGERS.. 08/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
LAT...LON 31601185 31871276 32231297 32761311 33041282 33181221
33341131 33011065 32341012 32021011 31721026 31471071
31331111 31601185
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