MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1751

ACUS11 KWNS 291842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291841
AZZ000-292015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291841Z - 292015Z

THE CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CU FIELD IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AND SERN AZ TODAY AND
ESSENTIALLY CORRESPONDS TO LOW AND MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME OVER THE
STATE. PHOENIX AREA VWP IS INDICATIVE OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ONGOING LARGER
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET ACROSS NV/UT. THESE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DEEP MIXING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES AND TERRAIN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW RANGING FROM 60KT ACROSS THE NORTH TO ABOUT
30KT IN THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-BEARING FLOW. NONETHELESS...SOME
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING ACROSS THE AREAS OUTLINED IN
THE MCD GRAPHIC AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34081298 34731296 35061268 35231231 35201170 34531053
33770957 33270932 32670956 32341018 32321076 32501126
32891196 33201237 33591276 34081298

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