SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301819
MNZ000-NDZ000-301915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND NERN ND/FAR NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301819Z - 301915Z
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR
HAIL...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL AND NERN ND INTO FAR NWRN
MN.
AT 18Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHED SWWD
FROM NWRN MN THROUGH SERN-SOUTH CENTRAL ND TO AN AREA OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SD. WSR-88D VWPS SHOWED SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PAIR OF MIDLEVEL
IMPULSES LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WRN SD ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS ND. DESPITE
WEAK MLCAPE VALUES N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...MUCAPE 750-1500 J/KG
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 50 KT/ SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ WILL
FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..PETERS.. 08/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49029702 47779649 47199788 46290097 46010193 45950291
46350299 48190254 48980179 49029702
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