Monday, August 30, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1760

ACUS11 KWNS 302035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302035
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-302130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NRN SD INTO SRN-SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302035Z - 302130Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PART OF NRN SD
INTO SRN-SERN ND.

AT 20Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SWRN ND
INDICATED A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY...WITH A
SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER ERN ADAMS/SWRN GRANT COUNTIES ND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED W/NW OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER
OF NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND...AND NEAR A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS SWRN ND/NWRN SD PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE
STORMS WERE FORMING ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF GREATER MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY...GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS INVOF A FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD
FROM THE LOW MAINTAINING DESTABILIZATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INCREASED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
INVOF THE FRONT ENHANCING A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS
SBCINH HAS NOT REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO ROOT TO THE
SURFACE. 19Z RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
90+ F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND INCREASED
SEVERE STORM THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD INTO SRN-SERN
ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..PETERS.. 08/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45200232 46270218 47050077 47969754 47809693 46609681
46019683 45949869 45389897 45200232

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