SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310417
MNZ000-310515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 636...
VALID 310417Z - 310515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 636 CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY AUGMENTED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS SRN
MN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH 636 MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER EAST. OTHERWISE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH LINE MOVING ACROSS SERN SD.
LINE OF STORMS FROM N-CNTRL TO SWRN MN CONTINUES ADVANCING EAST AT
20-30 KT. A COUPLE OF DISCRETE CELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THE SRN END
OF THE LINE ACROSS SWRN MN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MARGINAL. HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE STORMS OVER SWRN MN ARE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INGEST HIGHER THETA-E AIR. GIVEN VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 500
M2/S2...DISCRETE MODES ALONG SRN END OF LINE...AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70
F...THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN MN NEXT 2-3
HOURS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH ALONG WITH OVERALL CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTION
SUGGESTS STORMS ARE PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RESULTING IN LESS
EFFECTIVE HELICITY THAN OBSERVED IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS...STORMS WILL REMAIN ROOTED
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO WARRANT CONCERN.
..DIAL.. 08/31/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...
LAT...LON 44219628 45099415 45179334 44489339 43899575 44219628
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