SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312159
NEZ000-KSZ000-312300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 312159Z - 312300Z
TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS IMMINENT ALONG SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
DRAPED THROUGH NRN/CNTRL KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY...WITH LIKELY UPSCALE GROWTH
LEADING TO POTENTIAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 23Z.
RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SHOWERS INCREASING BENEATH
A CIRRUS CANOPY ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WICHITA TO REPUBLIC
COUNTY AS OF 21Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GIVEN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF
2500 TO 4000 J/KG/. LATEST HI-RES RAPID REFRESH/WRF-NMM AND NSSL
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS AND ONE OR MORE
QLCS/S WILL OCCUR...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL COLD
POOL/FRONTAL INTERACTIONS UNDERCUTTING UPDRAFTS. OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD LARGELY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 08/31/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39709867 40069718 40189602 40049558 39809553 39339602
38839688 38329895 38060084 38690097 39709867
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