SWODY1
SPC AC 050507
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS S OF A PERSISTENT LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN
CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FARTHER W...A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL
DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. WHILE LIMITED
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODEST CAPE -- SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE INCREASE.
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE UVV AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE -- WITH HAIL/WIND
POSSIBLE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE
ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/05/2010
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