SWODY1
SPC AC 301551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010
VALID 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO PORTIONS
OF PA/NJ/NY...
...NC INTO PA/NJ/NY TODAY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER AL/GA...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ALSO...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
LOW AND IS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO WV/PA. THE RESULT IS A WIDESPREAD
PLUME OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST US. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ARE YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF INTENSE LOW
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH 3KM SRH VALUES OF 500-700 M2/S2 FROM
EASTERN NC INTO EASTERN PA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OFFSET THE
WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN THE MID LEVELS TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
CAPE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALL MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST VA AND
NORTHEAST NC.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NARROW AXIS OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. THE MORE PERSISTENT
CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
...EASTERN NC TONIGHT...
LATER TONIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NC AND PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AFTER DARK SHOW THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
INTENSE SRH VALUES /500+ M2/S2/...SUGGESTING THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES OVER FAR EASTERN NC TONIGHT.
..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/30/2010
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