SWODY1
SPC AC 161233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY...
...UPPER OH VALLEY...
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER LAKE
MI SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/IL WILL SWEEP EASTWARD AND HELP
TO FOCUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OH/KY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BY
LATE MORNING. THIS WILL HELP YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...OR EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO AROUND PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS STORMS
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WV/PA WHERE A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED.
...NY/PA/NJ/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER OH/WV WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS PA/NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND RATHER
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST A RISK OF STORM INTENSIFICATION
AND THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS LATER TODAY FROM EASTERN
PA/SOUTHEAST NY/NJ INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS AZ THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN
NM...ACROSS WEST TX/TX PANHANDLE...INTO SOUTHERN OK. DESPITE WEAK
WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR...MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE VALUES INDICATE A
RISK OF A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN IDENTIFYING THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
AT THIS TIME.
..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/16/2010
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