Saturday, September 25, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260047
SWODY1
SPC AC 260046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHARPLY DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. A REINFORCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A REMNANT SMALL
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LEAD
SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...BUT PERHAPS
BECOME MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES
AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES FURTHER THROUGH THE
02-04Z TIME FRAME...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WITH LINGERING
STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

..KERR.. 09/26/2010

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