SWODY1
SPC AC 110043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO MID-MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY INITIATED OVER NW MO AND ERN KS EARLY
THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT DELAYED FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. ACTIVITY
APPEARS BE BENEFITING FROM A WEAK LEAD PV-FILAMENT GRAZING PARTS OF
CNTRL/ERN KS ATTM. ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING
EXHIBITED 4141 J/KG MLCAPE...7.0 DEG C PER KM LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. EXPECT THAT AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND OVERTAKES PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE...STORMS WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD INTO SCNTRL KS AND
PERHAPS NCNTRL OK THROUGH MID-EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. INITIAL STORMS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. TORNADO RISKS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP
EARLY THIS EVENING VCNTY LAWRENCE KS-KANSAS CITY METRO AREA ALONG NE
FRINGE OF STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMIDST STRONGEST LLVL
TURNING OF WINDS NEAR A NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT.
AS NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASES THROUGH LATE EVENING...MODE WILL
STRONGLY TREND TOWARD CLUSTERS/SEMI-ORGANIZED LEWPS AS THE
DEEP-LAYER WSW FLOW INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH. AT THAT TIME...SEVERE THREATS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL OVER WRN/SRN MO AND NE OK.
..RACY.. 09/11/2010
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