DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291953
SWODY1
SPC AC 291951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NC AND SERN
VA...

.CHANGES TO PREV FCST... NONE.

ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. MESOLOW
HAS MOVED NWD THROUGH ERN NC WITH COASTAL AND WEDGE FRONT HAVING
MADE A SLIGHT EWD MOTION OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN IN ITS
WAKE. EXPECT AS THE NEXT PVA SPOKE ROTATES NWD FROM N FL
TONIGHT...RICH THETA-E AIR MASS WILL EDGE INLAND AGAIN COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG LLVL SHEAR.

..RACY.. 09/29/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

...FL...
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NEAR CUBA TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FL BY THIS EVENING /PER
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE FL MAINLAND IN THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATES THAT A BRIEF SPIN UP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

...NC/VA...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PROCESS OF RAPID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NC BY
MIDNIGHT...YIELDING 3KM SRH VALUES OF 250-450 M2/S2. THE COASTAL
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
AND DEEP MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
AND VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS NC/SOUTHEAST VA
OVERNIGHT.

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