SWODY1
SPC AC 291232
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ALONG THE SE FL COAST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
ERN NC AND THE VA TIDEWATER REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL PERSIST FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA NNEWD OVER SE FL TO ERN NC AND VA TIDEWATER REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITHIN THIS PLUME AND E OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND PASS NEAR THE SE FL COAST TODAY /SEE LATEST
NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. A SEPARATE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
NRN AL/GA WILL ALSO EXERT INFLUENCE FARTHER N INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHERE AT LEAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.
...SE FL COAST TODAY...
THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS NEAR THE SE FL COAST WILL INCREASE SOME
TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN STRENGTHENS SLOWLY WHILE MOVING
NNEWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND SE FL. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE FL
IS ALREADY VERY MOIST /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S/ AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPENING CYCLONE...PROVIDING A SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO OR TWO PRIOR TO
CYCLONE PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
...ERN NC/VA TIDEWATER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SEPARATE CYCLOGENESIS N OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT APPEARS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
SPREAD INLAND ON INCREASING SLY/SELY FLOW. POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN WILL
LIMIT BUOYANCY IN THE MOIST SECTOR...BUT MLCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NC. SRH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RATHER
DRAMATICALLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING 60-70 KT LLJ...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE VERY MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TRAINING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ERN
NC...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 09/29/2010
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