Wednesday, September 15, 2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150555
SWODY2
SPC AC 150554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE TN VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS...IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT QUICKLY
EWD...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE FRONT
SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.


...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH
COOLING TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS CONTRIBUTES THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ROUGHLY 500-750 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. THOUGH THE MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH
AIDED BY RELATIVELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS THUS ANTICIPATED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 09/15/2010

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