SWODY2
SPC AC 170552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW FIELD ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD...WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND A LOW/TROUGH REMAINING OFF THE W COAST.
BELT OF VERY FAST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
AREA...AS A DEEP VORTEX SHIFTS ACROSS THE NRN ONTARIO/NRN QUEBEC
REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE EVEN SLOWER PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD.
...SRN IA/NRN MO/NRN IL AND VICINITY...
AN AREA OF MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...NEAR THE NOSE OF A VEERING
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST
S OF THE SSEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WEAK ASCENT NEAR AND S OF THE
INCREASINGLY ANAFRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT MOST CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED N OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY
EXPANDING/INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
REDEVELOPS. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED DUE
TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINING N OF
THIS REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...WILL
INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ SEVERE AREA GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL.
..GOSS.. 09/17/2010
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