SWODY2
SPC AC 111729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ESEWD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TOMORROW...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES AGAIN OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD TO NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SWD ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM TX ACROSS THE SRN GULF COAST
STATES TO THE CAROLINAS.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
GULF/ATLANTIC COAST FRONTAL PASSAGE CASTS DOUBT ON ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM IA TOWARD UPPER MI.
RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAK BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT...WILL LEAVE THIS AREA FOR THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS TO RECONSIDER.
A WEAK WAA REGIME AND SOME NWD/NEWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER KS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
...COASTAL PLAINS OF SC/NC/GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SC/NC/GA WHERE WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH COINCIDES WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...IN
PHASE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
NEAR 90S WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LARGELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT A
FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..THOMPSON.. 09/11/2010
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