SWODY3
SPC AC 070729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING/AMPLIFYING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS ULTIMATELY EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR...LEE CYCLOGENESIS/TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A MOIST AIRMASS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY REESTABLISHED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ATTENDANT TO A SURFACE LOW/NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT.
MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD/GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS ON THURSDAY.
REFERENCE THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...A GENERAL SCENARIO OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS/TROUGHING...COINCIDENT WITH A MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR...IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE
LEADING/NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH POTENTIALLY PIVOTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO PORTIONS OF WY/MT BY
THURSDAY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE
BASED/POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A DEEPENING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW/LEE
TROUGH...INCLUDING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA.
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN WY/SOUTHEAST MT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AMID UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR/EAST OF THE
LEE TROUGH...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT /40-55 KT AT 500
MB/ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...
THE REMNANTS OF CURRENT TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE MAY BE A FACTOR FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS VICINITY. HOWEVER...A
LIMITED FORECAST PREDICTABILITY...INCLUDING THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF
HERMINE REMNANTS AND UNCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION...WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE /TORNADO/ PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 09/07/2010
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