Wednesday, September 8, 2010

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LARGE SCALE IMPETUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY
WILL BE THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ASSOCIATED
EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO
VALLEY.

...LOWER MO VALLEY...
SOME LARGE SCALE TIMING VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE 00Z BASED
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /GFS GENERALLY FASTER THAN ECMWF AND NAM/...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY VICINITY ESPECIALLY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT TSTMS WILL INCREASE/BECOME SEVERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEB/NORTHERN KS TO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHERN MO AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
AND ALONG THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE BRUNT OF THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LAG /NORTHWEST OF/ THE
FRONTAL ZONE/TRIPLE POINT VICINITY...BUT AN OTHERWISE NEAR-FRONTAL
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE
TO STRONG BUOYANCY...AMID A RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS
/SURFACE DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F/...WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.

...EASTERN DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
FARTHER NORTH...A CONSIDERABLY LESSER OPPORTUNITY/DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED IN VICINITY OF THE GENERAL
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED OCCLUDING FRONTAL ZONE. NONETHELESS...EARLY DAY
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY POSE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT...WITH ADDITIONAL
STRONG/PERHAPS SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT /CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND/
ALONG THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
PROVIDED SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION.

..GUYER.. 09/08/2010

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