SWODY3
SPC AC 160723
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN HALF
OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE LARGE UPPER VORTEX OVER CANADA
CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED
TO MAKE MODEST EWD PROGRESS...AFFECTING THE PAC NW AS IT WEAKENS
SLOWLY WITH TIME.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE ERN PACIFIC TROUGH...WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE TRAILING E-W
PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING THE
PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. THE NAM
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT FOR LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
ITS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND DEPICTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE OVER ERN IA/NWRN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE
GFS DEPICTING THE FRONT WELL S AND E OF THIS AREA...ANY ISOLATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKEWISE LIE S AND E OF THE NAM FORECAST.
GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN EITHER SCENARIO...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GOSS.. 09/16/2010
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