SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070313
TXZ000-070615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 070313Z - 070615Z
WARM-CLOUD RAIN RATES COMMONLY 1-2 INCHES/HOUR...AND LOCALLY/BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE IN INNER REGION OF TS HERMINE
AS CENTER FOLLOWS NNWLY TRACK TOWARD LOWER VALLEY REGION DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PER NHC WIND
FCSTS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL-FOCUSED INTO
CENTRAL PORTION OF CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RING OF
HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS NWRN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE RICHEST LAYER OF MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED WITH PW NEAR 2.5 INCHES...FARTHEST REMOVED FROM EFFECTS
OF ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM FROM MEX PLATEAU. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NNWWD ACROSS MUCH OF
CAMERON/HIDALGO/WILLACY/KENEDY/BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z.
INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED INNER SPIRAL
BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS WILLACY AND SRN KENEDY
COUNTY SEWD OVER GULF...AND ALSO PRODUCING BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN.
REF HPC EXCESSIVE RAIN DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON OVERALL PRECIP
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 08/00Z. REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR
LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST INFO ON HERMINE. REF WW 645 AND
SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26519845 27089863 27349873 27439828 27279775 26999738
26629727 26239718 25979713 25949723 25929734 25799738
25909752 26039765 26049776 26079806 26079821 26519845
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