SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080703
TXZ000-081000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 080703Z - 081000Z
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING FROM NEAR SAN-ANTONIO TO NEAR AUSTIN TO EAST OF
STEPHENVILLE. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY IN THIS
CORRIDOR.
AS OF 06Z THE CENTER OF TD HERMINE WAS LOCATED OVER W-CNTRL TX JUST
WEST OF BROWNWOOD AND IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE IN A SLOW NWD
DIRECTION THROUGH 12Z BEFORE TURNING MORE NNEWD. A CORRIDOR OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS FROM NEAR THE
SAN-ANTONIO AREA NWD TO NEAR STEPHENVILLE. RECENT TRENDS IN IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUD TOP COOLING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATE AN INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OVER SOUTH AND SERN TX WITH
UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS FEEDING THE CONVECTION. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PERSISTENT ZONE OF CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE CENTER AND PW VALUES
NEAR 2.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN
SLOW NWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE ZONE OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS TRAIN
NWD WITHIN THE BAND.
THOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT IS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAND OR WITH ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY MOVING NWD
EAST OF THE LINE WHERE LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST.
..DIAL.. 09/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30169837 31329798 32299831 32579777 32359718 31279691
29899748 29019871 29309913 30169837
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