SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102010
MOZ000-KSZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS TO CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102010Z - 102145Z
LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST A TRANSITORY BAND OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ARE
MIGRATING ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ATOP
A PRONOUNCED CAP THAT HAS YET TO FULLY ERODE. DIAGNOSTIC DATA DOES
SUGGEST AIRMASS NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER MO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE DUE PRIMARILY TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED
WARM ADVECTION BAND. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS
HAVE EVOLVED WEST OF MKC. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DOWNSTREAM
INSTABILITY/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. IF UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME ROOTED NEAR
THE WARM FRONT VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. WITH TIME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS
KS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW.
..DARROW.. 09/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39589438 38499209 37509284 38029441 38879666 39789657
39589438
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