SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172058
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-172230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL CO...NW KS...SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172058Z - 172230Z
IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO JUSTIFY A WATCH...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT...BASED WITHIN A FAIRLY
STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. POCKETS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS ACTIVITY AS INHIBITION
WEAKENS WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING. UPPER SUPPORT IS GENERALLY
WEAK...BUT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GROWTH AND
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH 21-23Z ACROSS THE BURLINGTON
CO/GOODLAND KS AREAS...NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES.
DESPITE RATHER MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES... SIZABLE
CAPE /INCREASING FROM 1000 TO 2000+ J PER KG WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND SUBSTANTIAL
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS. WITH WIND FIELDS
VEERING FROM LIGHT EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY AT LOWER LEVELS TO
MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR
TWO...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD... WHILE
PERHAPS DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
..KERR.. 09/17/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39330322 40000230 40350165 40240048 39810008 39250061
39060164 38860268 39090311 39330322
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