SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270802
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-271030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN FL PANHANDLE...SRN GA...ERN
SC...EXTREME SRN NC.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270802Z - 271030Z
POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING FOR STG-SVR GUSTS AND BRIEF TORNADO WITH
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION...PERSISTING THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOWS OVER S-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND
WRN/CENTRAL GA...LATTER BEING ALONG DIFFUSE/WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM PAM NEWD OVER SC/NC PIEDMONT.
BETTER-DEFINED BUT STILL WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG
FRONT OVER NERN GA/NWRN SC AREA BY 12Z WITH APCH OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH PIVOTING EWD FROM MS
ACROSS AL...AROUND SRN RIM OF BROAD MID-UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
MEM AREA. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD TURN NEWD ACROSS AL/GA THROUGH
15Z...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
LAPSE RATES OVER WARM SECTOR...ANY RELATED DESTABILIZATION ALOFT
WILL HELP TO OFFSET SLOW DIABATIC COOLING AT SFC AND KEEP EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS SFC-BASED. MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN IN 250-1000 J/KG
RANGE INLAND...AND 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR COASTS IN GREATER PROXIMITY
TO HIGH-THETAE MARINE AIR. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY OVER PORTIONS SRN GA...FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT GULF. SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER SERN GA AND NRN
FL...WITH STRONGER MLCINH...MAY NEARLY BIFURCATE SVR POTENTIAL WITH
NARROW CONNECTOR OVER CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL GA. TIME SERIES OF VWP FROM
GA SWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE INDICATES STRENGTHENING OF MIDLEVEL WINDS
-- I.E. 700-500 MB -- WITH APCH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THOUGH BACKING
OF FLOW AROUND 850 MB WINDS HAS KEPT HODOGRAPHS FROM ENLARGING.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40 KT SHOULD REMAIN COMMON E OF FRONT. EFFECTIVE
SRH 150-250 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN NARROW STRIP AHEAD OF FRONT FROM AAF
AREA NEWD ALONG SC COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY POSE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS...WHILE RELATIVELY DISCRETE CELLS MAY ROTATE. GIVEN MRGL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG TRANSLATIONAL DEVIANCE NEEDED OFF
HODOGRAPH TO ATTAIN LARGE SRH...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY
CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..EDWARDS.. 09/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 29968603 31548397 32508177 33568032 34577895 34507821
33867795 33927808 33847859 33467910 33137917 32997939
32478029 32518051 32378039 32048087 31578113 31618199
31168266 30568299 29068300 29288310 29428321 29448330
29518340 29678340 29768362 29938367 30098399 30038428
29898432 29578502 29678516 29678537 29828543 29908537
29698534 29828526 29958543 29998558 29968603
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