SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272201
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-280000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN GA INTO UPSTATE S CAROLINA AND PARTS
OF WRN N CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272201Z - 280000Z
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE CONFINED TO THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
OR SO. SO THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
RECENT RAPID INCREASE IN VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ATLANTA AREA IS LIKELY BEING AIDED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS NOW
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY ONLY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME RATHER STEEP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET ADVECTS ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 50-70 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH 00-01Z...AS THEY GRADUALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TOWARD
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THEREAFTER...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
CONTRIBUTES TO EXPANDING/CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...STABILIZING LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
..KERR.. 09/27/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 34518455 35208412 35488314 34938212 33728239 32748309
32678388 32978426 33188480 33938475 34518455
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