SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301900
NCZ000-VAZ000-302100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301900Z - 302100Z
ROTATING CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE MOVING NWWD ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM TOWARD/ONTO THE NC COAST.
LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF MESOSCALE LOW
PRESSURE -- ONE SE OF ILN /WILMINGTON NC/ AND THE OTHER S OF MHX
/MOREHEAD CITY NC/...BOTH MOVING NNWWD TOWARD THE NC COAST.
MEANWHILE...STORM-SCALE ROTATION IS ALSO EVIDENT WITHIN CELLULAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY E OF THESE TWO LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATIONS...WHICH
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAPE. WHILE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AS MEAGER INSTABILITY -- CONFIRMED BY LACK OF
APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY -- HINDERS STRONGER CELLS.
NONETHELESS...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT PER LATEST KMHX WSR-88D
VWP SUPPORTING THE STORM-SCALE UPDRAFT ROTATION...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE. WHILE THREAT APPEARS TO LOW TO WARRANT
CONSIDERATION OF WW ISSUANCE ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA.
..GOSS.. 09/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 33417766 33937810 35217754 36587652 36447560 35487530
34337618 33417766
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