SWODY1
SPC AC 120530
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND MS DELTA
WWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL LIKELY AID IN DISLODGING
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ESEWD FROM TX
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE LOW OPENS INTO
A BROAD UPPER WAVE. UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING NEW ENGLAND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL ALSO TAKE FORM OVER THE WRN US THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/MS DELTA WWD TO SCNTRL TX...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER LA/MS EARLY TODAY
SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL MASS AND MOISTURE FLUX ON THE NOSE OF WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LIMIT STRONGER DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING LARGE SCALE SYSTEM...AND PROXIMITY
AND PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
GULF COAST...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MORE
INTENSE TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS FROM MS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN AND AL.
IN ADDITION TO AN UPTICK IN STORM INTENSITY WITH ANY LEADING
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE MS RIVER...STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEADING
CONVECTION...IN AN ARC FROM SERN AR ACROSS LA TO THE UPPER TX
COAST...AND ALSO WWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX LATER TODAY. WEAKENING
INHIBITION AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS
COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF 40-50KT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW BANDS OF FAST-MOVING STORMS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS
POSSIBLE.
..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 10/12/2010
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